Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Devils @ Spartans DUKE @ MSU

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

9-0  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

8-0  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BLUE DEVILS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Duke)
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

99.8%

Spartans Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

DUKE By 1-7 points

1.4%

DUKE By 8-14 points

5.8%

MSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

MSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
94
DUKE
65
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
74
DUKE
78
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 DUKE @ MSU 66 - 60
Nov 14, 2023 DUKE @ MSU 74 - 65
Mar 20, 2022 MSU @ DUKE 76 - 85
Dec 1, 2020 MSU @ DUKE 75 - 69
Dec 3, 2019 DUKE @ MSU 87 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.7% more
Duke: 5.8 vs Michigan State: 4.5
Steals (L5) +17.8% more
Duke: 6.9 vs Michigan State: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Michigan State: 78.8% vs Duke: 67.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Michigan State: 35.6% vs Duke: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 94.0 66
MSU Score 65.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 33.0 36.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.9 / 17.4 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.5 / 5.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 50.6 32.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 67.4 71.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 38.1 43.0 / 44.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.9 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.1 5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
MSU
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
DUKE
MSU
DUKE
ML
71% 25-10
71% 27-11
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
ATS
71% 25-10
79% 30-8
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
TTL
49% 17-18
47% 18-20
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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