Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cyclones @ Boilermakers ISU @ PUR

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

8-0  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Mackey Arena
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

8-0  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
CYCLONES --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Purdue)
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

24.2%

Boilermakers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

ISU By 1-7 points

15.3%

ISU By 8-14 points

5.8%

PUR By 1-7 points

26.2%

PUR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
IOWA STATE
73
PURDUE
Simulated Score
69
IOWA STATE
73
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 ISU @ PUR 81 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.9% more
Purdue: 3.3 vs Iowa State: 2.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Purdue: 38.7 vs Iowa State: 34.3
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
Purdue: 80.9% vs Iowa State: 70.6%
Steals (L5) +58.6% more
Iowa State: 12.7 vs Purdue: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 66.0 81
PUR Score 73.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.2 / 50.4 22.0 / 48.0
Assists 20.7 / 22.0 17.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.2 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 52.4 / 59.1 41.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 70.6 43.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 34.3 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.3 / 12.7 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.8 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
PUR
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
ISU
PUR
ISU
ML
67% 26-13
57% 21-16
66% 25-13
76% 26-8
ATS
64% 25-14
62% 23-14
66% 25-13
76% 26-8
TTL
51% 20-19
54% 20-17
100% 38-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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