MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
3-5 | Road
71
LAFAYETTE
LEOPARDSLAF
2-7 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
LEOPARDS
100%
LAKERS
--
LEOPARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
MERC By 1-7 points
1.7%
MERC By 8-14 points
6.8%
LAF By 1-7 points
0.2%
LAF By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
77
MERCYHURST
Lafayette
49
LAFAYETTE
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
68
MERCYHURST
Lafayette
71
LAFAYETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Leopards
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Leopards (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 5, 2025
MERC @ LAF
71 - 79
Dec 7, 2024
LAF @ MERC
77 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.7% more
Mercyhurst: 2.7
vs
Lafayette: 2.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Mercyhurst: 41.5%
vs
Lafayette: 38.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+29.3%
Lafayette: 76.0%
vs
Mercyhurst: 46.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
77.0
71
LAF Score
49.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 32.4
61.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.0 / 10.9
16.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.7
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
38.7 / 41.5
50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 46.7
94.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 31.1
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.9
2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 12.4
15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
LAF
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
LAF
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAF
MERC
LAF
MERC
ML
53%
17-15
59%
20-14
59%
19-13
79%
26-7
ATS
56%
18-14
62%
21-13
59%
19-13
79%
26-7
TTL
50%
16-16
53%
18-16
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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