NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
1-6 | Road
54
MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
6-2 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
COWBOYS
0%
DEMONS
--
COWBOYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (McNeese)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MCN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)
NWST By 1-7 points
24.3%
NWST By 8-14 points
13.7%
MCN By 1-7 points
26.2%
MCN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
55
NORTHWESTERN STATE
McNeese
56
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
65
NORTHWESTERN STATE
McNeese
78
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cowboys
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cowboys
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cowboys (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cowboys (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 16, 2026
MCN @ NWST
75 - 64
Dec 5, 2025
NWST @ MCN
54 - 92
Mar 11, 2025
NWST @ MCN
64 - 83
Feb 8, 2025
NWST @ MCN
50 - 65
Jan 6, 2025
MCN @ NWST
92 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+70.3% more
McNeese: 9.5
vs
Northwestern State: 5.6
Blocks (L5)
+27.8% more
McNeese: 3.7
vs
Northwestern State: 2.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.8% more
McNeese: 32.4
vs
Northwestern State: 28.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
McNeese: 80.1%
vs
Northwestern State: 70.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
55.0
54
MCN Score
56.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.5 / 38.4
47.0 / 30.0
Assists
11.0 / 12.5
23.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.9
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 44.6
56.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 70.2
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 28.4
42.0 / 23.0
Steals
9.5 / 5.6
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 11.9
10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
MCN
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
MCN
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
NWST
MCN
NWST
ML
67%
22-11
68%
21-10
88%
28-4
77%
23-7
ATS
76%
25-8
68%
21-10
88%
28-4
77%
23-7
TTL
42%
14-19
39%
12-19
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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