CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
6-16 | Road
111
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
15-8 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
HORNETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CHA By 1-7 points
26.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
25.3%
TOR By 1-7 points
15.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
107
CHARLOTTE
Toronto
100
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
TOR @ CHA
97 - 96
Dec 5, 2025
CHA @ TOR
111 - 86
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ CHA
111 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
CHA @ TOR
108 - 110
Apr 9, 2025
CHA @ TOR
96 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.7% more
Charlotte: 6.2
vs
Toronto: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.0%
Charlotte: 86.3%
vs
Toronto: 73.3%
Steals (L5)
+61.4% more
Toronto: 9.1
vs
Charlotte: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+44.6% more
Toronto: 32.8
vs
Charlotte: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
107.0
111
TOR Score
100.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 32.0
31.0 / 36.0
Assists
32.8 / 22.7
19.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.2 / 6.2
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 42.9
37.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 86.3
69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 42.3
41.0 / 47.0
Steals
9.1 / 5.6
12.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 14.1
20.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHA
TOR
CHA
ML
55%
57-47
61%
60-39
55%
48-39
48%
40-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
60%
59-40
55%
48-39
48%
40-44
TTL
60%
62-42
58%
57-42
100%
87-0
100%
84-0
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