MIAMI
HEATMIA
14-8 | Road
105
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
13-9 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
MAGIC
100%
HEAT
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
21.6%
ORL By 1-7 points
2.7%
ORL By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
122
MIAMI
Orlando
104
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Miami
107
MIAMI
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.8% more
Miami: 30.0
vs
Orlando: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Miami: 85.8%
vs
Orlando: 77.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Miami: 37.5%
vs
Orlando: 31.1%
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Orlando: 10.9
vs
Miami: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
122.0
105
ORL Score
104.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 37.5
35.0 / 37.0
Assists
26.2 / 30.0
24.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.7 / 6.0
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 46.2
41.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 85.8
75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 45.3
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
10.9 / 9.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.0
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MIA
ORL
MIA
ML
61%
65-42
48%
46-50
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
ATS
64%
68-38-1
51%
49-47
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
TTL
57%
61-46
59%
57-39
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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