PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
9-13 | Road
116
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
17-5 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
PISTONS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
POR By 1-7 points
6.8%
POR By 8-14 points
16.9%
DET By 1-7 points
1.4%
DET By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
132
PORTLAND
Detroit
111
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Portland
109
PORTLAND
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers (-8)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o235.5
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
DET @ POR
110 - 102
Dec 5, 2025
POR @ DET
116 - 122
Mar 9, 2025
DET @ POR
119 - 112
Jan 6, 2025
POR @ DET
115 - 118
Feb 8, 2024
DET @ POR
128 - 122
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Portland: 36.2%
vs
Detroit: 32.4%
Steals (L5)
+52.6% more
Detroit: 9.1
vs
Portland: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+24.5% more
Detroit: 18.5
vs
Portland: 14.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Detroit: 45.9%
vs
Portland: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
132.0
116
DET Score
111.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 36.2
42.0 / 32.0
Assists
23.7 / 24.2
24.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.0 / 5.6
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 44.2
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
76.6 / 76.4
75.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
48.3 / 48.3
37.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.1 / 5.9
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
18.5 / 14.9
14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
POR
DET
POR
ML
55%
64-53
53%
56-49
49%
47-49
55%
49-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
62%
65-39-1
49%
47-49
55%
49-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
96-0
100%
89-0
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