DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
15-6 | Road
134
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
13-10 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
HAWKS
0%
NUGGETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
DEN By 1-7 points
4.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
0.8%
ATL By 1-7 points
13.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
96
DENVER
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.0
Loss
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
ATL @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 5, 2025
DEN @ ATL
134 - 133
Jan 1, 2025
ATL @ DEN
120 - 139
Dec 8, 2024
DEN @ ATL
141 - 111
Apr 6, 2024
ATL @ DEN
110 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+105.5% more
Atlanta: 10.2
vs
Denver: 5.0
Turnovers (L5)
+31.6% more
Atlanta: 16.3
vs
Denver: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+20.9% more
Denver: 4.7
vs
Atlanta: 3.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.7%
Denver: 48.5%
vs
Atlanta: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
96.0
134
ATL Score
112.0
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 48.5
43.0 / 43.0
Assists
27.8 / 29.7
35.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.7
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 54.0
52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 81.9
94.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 41.8
45.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.2 / 5.0
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 12.4
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DEN
ATL
DEN
ML
50%
52-52
54%
57-48
55%
48-40
55%
47-39
ATS
53%
55-48-1
63%
65-38-2
55%
48-40
55%
47-39
TTL
53%
55-48-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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