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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

8-15  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

21-1  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
MAVERICKS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Oklahoma City)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

1.8%

Thunder Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DAL By 1-7 points

1.4%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

6.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
89
DALLAS
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Loss
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.4% more
Oklahoma City: 8.5 vs Dallas: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +8.6% more
Oklahoma City: 5.7 vs Dallas: 5.3
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Oklahoma City: 52.5% vs Dallas: 48.9%
Assists (L5) +9.6% more
Dallas: 28.6 vs Oklahoma City: 25.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 89.0 111
OKC Score 110.0 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.4 / 43.2 40.0 / 43.0
Assists 25.9 / 28.6 30.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.7 / 5.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.5 / 48.9 56.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 78.6 93.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 44.8 43.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.3 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 12.4 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DAL
OKC
DAL
ML
70% 80-34
62% 63-39
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
ATS
73% 83-30-1
67% 68-34
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 60-41-1
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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