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FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

5-4  |  Road

66
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Draddy Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

MANHATTAN

JASPERSMAN

4-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
📊
JASPERS
100%
STAGS --
JASPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Fairfield)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 JaspersMAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

95.5%

Jaspers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

FAIR By 1-7 points

12.2%

FAIR By 8-14 points

23.0%

MAN By 1-7 points

3.3%

MAN By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
73
FAIRFIELD
56
MANHATTAN
Simulated Score
65
FAIRFIELD
72
MANHATTAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stags Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaspers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stags (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Jaspers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 MAN @ FAIR 60 - 71
Jan 14, 2026 MAN @ FAIR 62 - 98
Dec 5, 2025 FAIR @ MAN 66 - 70
Feb 16, 2025 MAN @ FAIR 80 - 67
Jan 23, 2025 FAIR @ MAN 87 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +24.8% more
Fairfield: 4.1 vs Manhattan: 3.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.4% more
Fairfield: 37.4 vs Manhattan: 32.0
Steals (L5) +16.5% more
Manhattan: 8.0 vs Fairfield: 6.9
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Manhattan: 11.2 vs Fairfield: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 73.0 66
MAN Score 56.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 36.6 26.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.8 / 11.8 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 44.2 43.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 68.6 81.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 37.4 35.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.9 14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.8 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MAN
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MAN
11-19-1 (36.7%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MAN
FAIR
MAN
FAIR
ML
52% 16-15
55% 18-15
68% 21-10
61% 20-13
ATS
52% 16-15
48% 16-17
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
TTL
77% 24-7
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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