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MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

2-8  |  Road

56
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
McCann Arena
View Odds Details →

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

5-2  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
RED FOXES
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
RED FOXES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 Red FoxesMRST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

30.9%

Red Foxes Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRST +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)

MSM By 1-7 points

27.2%

MSM By 8-14 points

23.0%

MRST By 1-7 points

18.6%

MRST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
59
MARIST
Simulated Score
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Foxes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Foxes (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Red Foxes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 MSM @ MRST 56 - 64
Mar 13, 2025 MSM @ MRST 62 - 58
Mar 8, 2025 MRST @ MSM 52 - 62
Dec 6, 2024 MSM @ MRST 50 - 53
Feb 2, 2024 MSM @ MRST 76 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.9% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.7 vs Marist: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Mount St. Mary's: 34.6% vs Marist: 31.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Mount St. Mary's: 46.4% vs Marist: 44.8%
Blocks (L5) +47.4% more
Marist: 3.5 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 64.0 56
MRST Score 59.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 34.6 37.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.3 / 15.6 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 46.4 43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 67.0 85.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 32.7 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.8 15.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 13.7 19.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
MRST Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
MRST
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
MSM
MRST
MSM
ML
55% 17-14
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
ATS
74% 23-8
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
TTL
52% 16-15
81% 26-6
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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