Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Saints NIA @ SIE

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

2-5  |  Road

54
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
MVP Arena
View Odds Details →

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

7-2  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Siena)
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 SaintsSIE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

0.3%

Saints Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)

NIA By 1-7 points

0.3%

NIA By 8-14 points

0.0%

SIE By 1-7 points

2.2%

SIE By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
58
NIAGARA
85
SIENA
Simulated Score
68
NIAGARA
72
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 30, 2026 SIE @ NIA 82 - 79
Dec 5, 2025 NIA @ SIE 54 - 83
Feb 21, 2025 NIA @ SIE 60 - 94
Dec 6, 2024 SIE @ NIA 68 - 69
Mar 12, 2024 SIE @ NIA 65 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +96.3% more
Siena: 8.0 vs Niagara: 4.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Siena: 32.1 vs Niagara: 28.1
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Siena: 46.6% vs Niagara: 42.5%
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
Niagara: 13.4 vs Siena: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 58.0 54
SIE Score 85.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.5 / 30.5 46.0 / 18.0
Assists 10.1 / 13.4 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.8 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 42.5 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 67.2 71.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 28.1 43.0 / 26.0
Steals 8.0 / 4.1 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.3 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SIE Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
NIA
SIE
NIA
ML
66% 23-12
55% 16-13
48% 16-17
72% 21-8
ATS
66% 23-12
69% 20-9
48% 16-17
72% 21-8
TTL
54% 19-16
55% 16-13
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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