Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Buccaneers USA @ ETSU

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

8-2  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

7-2  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
JAGUARS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (South Alabama)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

90.3%

Buccaneers Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-7 points

18.6%

USA By 8-14 points

26.8%

ETSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTH ALABAMA
57
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH ALABAMA
71
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 USA @ ETSU 65 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +9.1% more
South Alabama: 36.5 vs East Tennessee State: 33.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
South Alabama: 74.1% vs East Tennessee State: 69.9%
Turnovers (L5) +83.2% more
East Tennessee State: 14.1 vs South Alabama: 7.7
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
East Tennessee State: 3.6 vs South Alabama: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 70.0 65
ETSU Score 57.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 34.5 36.0 / 43.0
Assists 16.3 / 12.5 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.5 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 45.4 48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 74.1 78.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 36.5 45.0 / 29.0
Steals 10.1 / 7.7 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 7.7 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
USA
ETSU
USA
ML
42% 14-19
47% 15-17
70% 23-10
57% 17-13
ATS
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
70% 23-10
57% 17-13
TTL
45% 15-18
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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