CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
6-3 | Road
74
XAVIER
MUSKETEERSXAV
7-3 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
100%
MUSKETEERS
0%
BEARCATS
--
MUSKETEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Xavier)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around XAV -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)
CIN By 1-7 points
13.7%
CIN By 8-14 points
4.8%
XAV By 1-7 points
25.3%
XAV By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
75
CINCINNATI
Xavier
83
XAVIER
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
72
CINCINNATI
Xavier
76
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Musketeers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Musketeers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Musketeers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Musketeers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 5, 2025
CIN @ XAV
74 - 79
Dec 14, 2024
XAV @ CIN
65 - 68
Dec 9, 2023
CIN @ XAV
79 - 84
Dec 10, 2022
XAV @ CIN
80 - 77
Dec 11, 2021
CIN @ XAV
63 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.2% more
Xavier: 21.0
vs
Cincinnati: 16.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Xavier: 40.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 33.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Xavier: 69.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 66.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Xavier: 45.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
75.0
74
XAV Score
83.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 33.9
21.0 / 33.0
Assists
21.0 / 16.8
19.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.7
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 42.3
47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
69.9 / 66.1
57.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 36.7
37.0 / 51.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.4
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 15.2
4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
XAV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
XAV
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
CIN
XAV
CIN
ML
58%
19-14
67%
22-11
72%
23-9
74%
23-8
ATS
73%
24-9
64%
21-12
72%
23-9
74%
23-8
TTL
39%
13-20
67%
22-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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