Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Irish @ Horned Frogs ND @ TCU

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

6-3  |  Road

87
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Schollmaier Arena
View Odds Details →

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

5-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
HORNED FROGS
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Notre Dame)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

99.7%

Horned Frogs Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-7 points

2.2%

ND By 8-14 points

8.0%

TCU By 1-7 points

0.3%

TCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NOTRE DAME
49
TCU
Simulated Score
70
NOTRE DAME
73
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Horned Frogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Horned Frogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 ND @ TCU 87 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
Notre Dame: 76.8% vs TCU: 70.7%
Blocks (L5) +208.2% more
TCU: 5.7 vs Notre Dame: 1.8
Steals (L5) +110.6% more
TCU: 9.2 vs Notre Dame: 4.4
Assists (L5) +30.6% more
TCU: 15.6 vs Notre Dame: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 76.0 87
TCU Score 49.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.0 / 30.9 41.0 / 46.0
Assists 15.6 / 12.0 20.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.7 / 1.8 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 43.4 48.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 76.8 65.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 34.6 28.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.2 / 4.4 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.4 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ND
TCU
ND
ML
74% 26-9
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
77% 24-7
ATS
74% 26-9
55% 17-14
63% 19-11
77% 24-7
TTL
66% 23-12
68% 21-10
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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