SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
3-4 | Road
69
SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
3-5 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
TOREROS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (San José State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)
USD By 1-7 points
5.8%
USD By 8-14 points
1.4%
SJSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
SJSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
35
SAN DIEGO
San José State
49
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
San Diego
68
SAN DIEGO
San José State
71
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 5, 2025
USD @ SJSU
69 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+22.7% more
San José State: 36.2
vs
San Diego: 29.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
San José State: 35.3%
vs
San Diego: 28.6%
Blocks (L5)
+51.7% more
San Diego: 3.8
vs
San José State: 1.8
Turnovers (L5)
+24.2% more
San Diego: 13.5
vs
San José State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
35.0
69
SJSU Score
49.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 28.6
37.0 / 26.0
Assists
10.8 / 14.0
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.8 / 3.8
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
39.3 / 46.8
55.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 76.4
70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 29.5
45.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.1
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 13.5
22.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SJSU
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
SJSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
USD
SJSU
USD
ML
73%
24-9
58%
19-14
62%
20-12
70%
23-10
ATS
73%
24-9
55%
18-15
62%
20-12
70%
23-10
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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