GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
8-1 | Road
94
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
5-4 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
WILDCATS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Gonzaga)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)
GONZ By 1-7 points
27.4%
GONZ By 8-14 points
21.6%
UK By 1-7 points
20.1%
UK By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Gonzaga
69
GONZAGA
Kentucky
65
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Gonzaga
76
GONZAGA
Kentucky
81
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 5, 2025
GONZ @ UK
94 - 59
Dec 7, 2024
UK @ GONZ
90 - 89
Feb 10, 2024
GONZ @ UK
89 - 85
Nov 20, 2022
UK @ GONZ
72 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.3% more
Gonzaga: 9.7
vs
Kentucky: 8.2
Assists (L5)
+14.5% more
Gonzaga: 19.7
vs
Kentucky: 16.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.6% more
Gonzaga: 10.9
vs
Kentucky: 9.8
Blocks (L5)
+64.2% more
Kentucky: 5.5
vs
Gonzaga: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score
69.0
94
UK Score
65.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.6 / 29.9
21.0 / 50.0
Assists
16.9 / 19.7
12.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.4
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 47.7
27.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 67.8
77.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 41.3
31.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.2 / 9.7
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 10.9
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
UK
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
GONZ
UK
GONZ
ML
71%
25-10
71%
25-10
72%
23-9
69%
20-9
ATS
83%
29-6
69%
24-11
72%
23-9
69%
20-9
TTL
63%
22-13
57%
20-15
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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