Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Wizards BOS @ WSH

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

12-9  |  Road

146
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

3-17  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
CELTICS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Washington)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

1.8%

Wizards Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

BOS By 1-7 points

1.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

0.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

6.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
BOSTON
96
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
105
BOSTON
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.5 Loss
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 WSH @ BOS 100 - 111
Dec 4, 2025 BOS @ WSH 146 - 101
Nov 5, 2025 WSH @ BOS 107 - 136
Apr 6, 2025 WSH @ BOS 90 - 124
Dec 15, 2024 BOS @ WSH 112 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.9% more
Washington: 7.3 vs Boston: 4.7
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
Washington: 25.1 vs Boston: 21.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.3% more
Washington: 14.2 vs Boston: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
Boston: 78.7% vs Washington: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 75.0 146
WSH Score 96.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 36.2 32.0 / 43.0
Assists 25.1 / 21.4 21.0 / 35.0
Blocks 7.3 / 4.7 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 51.0 42.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 78.7 84.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 44.9 / 42.2 37.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.6 5.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.5 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BOS
WSH
BOS
ML
70% 112-49
57% 61-46
47% 39-44
53% 47-41
ATS
69% 111-49-1
59% 61-43-3
47% 39-44
53% 47-41
TTL
74% 119-41-1
56% 60-47
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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