Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Raptors LAL @ TOR

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

15-5  |  Road

123
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

15-7  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
LAKERS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Toronto)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

2.9%

Raptors Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

LAL By 1-7 points

2.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.4%

TOR By 1-7 points

9.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
105
LOS ANGELES
124
TORONTO
Simulated Score
105
LOS ANGELES
110
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 TOR @ LAL 93 - 110
Dec 4, 2025 LAL @ TOR 123 - 120
Nov 10, 2024 TOR @ LAL 103 - 123
Nov 1, 2024 LAL @ TOR 131 - 125
Apr 2, 2024 LAL @ TOR 128 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +100.0% more
Toronto: 9.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.6
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Toronto: 29.8 vs Los Angeles: 23.6
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Toronto: 44.1 vs Los Angeles: 40.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.8%
Los Angeles: 84.2% vs Toronto: 69.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 105.0 123
TOR Score 124.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 39.5 41.0 / 42.0
Assists 29.8 / 23.6 39.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.8 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 51.8 49.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 84.2 81.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 44.1 / 40.5 41.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.1 / 4.6 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.4 / 15.8 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
LAL
TOR
LAL
ML
55% 57-47
61% 68-43
55% 48-39
54% 49-42
ATS
61% 62-40-2
61% 67-43-1
55% 48-39
54% 49-42
TTL
60% 62-42
61% 66-43-2
100% 87-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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