CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
4-5 | Road
66
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
4-4 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
0%
MATADORS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUB -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
CSUB By 1-7 points
21.6%
CSUB By 8-14 points
27.4%
CSUN By 1-7 points
9.3%
CSUN By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
82
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Cal State Northridge
71
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
68
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Cal State Northridge
72
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
CSUN @ CSUB
86 - 84
Dec 4, 2025
CSUB @ CSUN
66 - 87
Feb 1, 2025
CSUB @ CSUN
62 - 88
Jan 11, 2025
CSUN @ CSUB
90 - 94
Feb 15, 2024
CSUN @ CSUB
76 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+77.4% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 4.8
vs
Cal State Northridge: 1.1
Steals (L5)
+26.4% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.8
vs
Cal State Northridge: 6.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Cal State Bakersfield: 43.0%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 36.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Cal State Bakersfield: 77.7%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
82.0
66
CSUN Score
71.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.0 / 18.3
29.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.3 / 10.5
23.0 / 8.0
Blocks
1.1 / 4.8
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
36.0 / 43.0
53.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 77.7
52.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 35.5
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.5 / 8.8
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 15.3
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
CSUN
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
CSUB
CSUN
CSUB
ML
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
67%
22-11
71%
22-9
ATS
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
67%
22-11
71%
22-9
TTL
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0