Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Rainbow Warriors UCD @ HAW

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

5-2  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 11:59 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

6-2  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
AGGIES --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
97.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Hawai'i)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

0.2%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HAW -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

UCD By 1-7 points

0.1%

UCD By 8-14 points

0.0%

HAW By 1-7 points

1.4%

HAW By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
34
UC DAVIS
63
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
68
UC DAVIS
72
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 97.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 HAW @ UCD 77 - 73
Dec 4, 2025 UCD @ HAW 69 - 75
Mar 1, 2025 UCD @ HAW 70 - 78
Jan 23, 2025 HAW @ UCD 66 - 68
Mar 15, 2024 HAW @ UCD 65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +27.6% more
Hawai'i: 41.1 vs UC Davis: 32.2
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Hawai'i: 14.9 vs UC Davis: 13.2
Blocks (L5) +10.0% more
Hawai'i: 3.3 vs UC Davis: 3.0
Assists (L5) +8.0% more
Hawai'i: 15.6 vs UC Davis: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 34.0 69
HAW Score 63.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.8 / 35.8 44.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.6 / 14.4 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 50.3 54.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 78.3 58.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 32.2 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.1 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 13.2 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
UCD
HAW
UCD
ML
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
ATS
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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