RIDER
BRONCSRID
1-6 | Road
66
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
4-6 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
BRONCS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
RIDER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Rider)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RID -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RID)
RID By 1-7 points
6.8%
RID By 8-14 points
16.9%
MRMK By 1-7 points
1.4%
MRMK By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
91
RIDER
Merrimack
70
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
Rider
68
RIDER
Merrimack
72
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Broncs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Broncs (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
MRMK @ RID
73 - 47
Dec 4, 2025
RID @ MRMK
66 - 68
Feb 28, 2025
RID @ MRMK
83 - 78
Feb 2, 2025
MRMK @ RID
66 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+38.3% more
Rider: 15.3
vs
Merrimack: 9.5
Rebounding (L5)
+29.0% more
Rider: 38.8
vs
Merrimack: 27.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Rider: 81.1%
vs
Merrimack: 77.2%
Assists (L5)
+55.8% more
Merrimack: 14.2
vs
Rider: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
91.0
66
MRMK Score
70.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.1 / 26.6
38.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.2 / 9.1
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.1
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.7 / 34.8
46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 81.1
64.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
27.5 / 38.8
19.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.0 / 6.5
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 15.3
8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
RID
MRMK
RID
ML
47%
16-18
72%
21-8
65%
22-12
66%
19-10
ATS
53%
18-16
72%
21-8
65%
22-12
66%
19-10
TTL
62%
21-13
62%
18-11
100%
34-0
100%
29-0
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