Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Wildcats CIT @ DAV

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

2-7  |  Road

63
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 7:00 PM ET
John M. Belk Arena
View Odds Details →

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

7-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BULLDOGS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Davidson)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 WildcatsDAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

3.6%

Wildcats Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAV -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)

CIT By 1-7 points

2.7%

CIT By 8-14 points

0.5%

DAV By 1-7 points

10.7%

DAV By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
55
THE CITADEL
73
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
65
THE CITADEL
78
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 4, 2025 CIT @ DAV 63 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +131.3% more
Davidson: 3.5 vs The Citadel: 1.5
Steals (L5) +36.3% more
Davidson: 6.5 vs The Citadel: 4.7
Assists (L5) +35.6% more
Davidson: 13.3 vs The Citadel: 9.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.5% more
Davidson: 11.2 vs The Citadel: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 55.0 63
DAV Score 73.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 31.4 41.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.3 / 9.8 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 38.1 45.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 65.7 62.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 30.2 36.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.5 / 4.7 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.1 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
DAV Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
CIT
DAV
CIT
ML
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
ATS
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
TTL
52% 17-16
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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