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UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

7-1  |  Road

61
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Yuengling Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

5-4  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
AGGIES --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (South Florida)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

9.7%

Bulls Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USF -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USU By 1-7 points

6.8%

USU By 8-14 points

1.7%

USF By 1-7 points

18.6%

USF By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
36
UTAH STATE
49
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
73
UTAH STATE
70
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Aggies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 4, 2025 USU @ USF 61 - 74
Dec 14, 2024 USF @ USU 67 - 88
Dec 18, 2019 USF @ USU 74 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.3% more
South Florida: 3.5 vs Utah State: 2.8
Rebounding (L5) +8.4% more
South Florida: 39.2 vs Utah State: 36.1
Steals (L5) +19.6% more
Utah State: 11.5 vs South Florida: 9.2
Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
Utah State: 51.9% vs South Florida: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 36.0 61
USF Score 49.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 38.4 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.9 / 18.5 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.8 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 51.9 45.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 72.9 75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 36.1 40.0 / 34.0
Steals 9.2 / 11.5 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.8 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
USF
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
USU
USF
USU
ML
61% 20-13
49% 17-18
52% 16-15
66% 21-11
ATS
61% 20-13
74% 26-9
52% 16-15
67% 22-11
TTL
52% 17-16
51% 18-17
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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