UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
5-2 | Road
81
GEORGETOWN
HOYASGTWN
5-2 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
HOYAS
0%
RETRIEVERS
--
HOYAS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
GEORGETOWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Georgetown)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GTWN -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GTWN)
UMBC By 1-7 points
0.0%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.0%
GTWN By 1-7 points
0.2%
GTWN By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
59
UMBC
Georgetown
95
GEORGETOWN
Simulated Score
UMBC
64
UMBC
Georgetown
78
GEORGETOWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hoyas
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hoyas
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hoyas (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Hoyas (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
UMBC @ GTWN
81 - 90
Dec 2, 2024
UMBC @ GTWN
62 - 86
Nov 26, 2022
UMBC @ GTWN
70 - 79
Dec 8, 2021
UMBC @ GTWN
71 - 100
Nov 25, 2020
UMBC @ GTWN
62 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.7% more
Georgetown: 8.1
vs
UMBC: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+10.2% more
Georgetown: 15.5
vs
UMBC: 14.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Georgetown: 72.8%
vs
UMBC: 68.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+24.0% more
UMBC: 13.4
vs
Georgetown: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
59.0
81
GTWN Score
95.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 35.0
48.0 / 35.0
Assists
15.5 / 14.0
25.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.0
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 46.4
56.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 68.6
70.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 40.1
30.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.3
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 13.4
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
GTWN
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
GTWN
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GTWN
UMBC
GTWN
UMBC
ML
67%
22-11
58%
18-13
73%
22-8
55%
17-14
ATS
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
73%
22-8
55%
17-14
TTL
58%
19-14
39%
12-19
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
