PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
13-7-5 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
16-8-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Declan Carlile
#72 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Carlile | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
PENGUINS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
PIT @ TB
3 - 6
Jan 13, 2026
TB @ PIT
2 - 1
Dec 4, 2025
PIT @ TB
4 - 3
Mar 25, 2025
PIT @ TB
1 - 6
Jan 12, 2025
TB @ PIT
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+17.6%
Pittsburgh: 35.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 17.9%
Takeaways (L5)
+15.2% more
Pittsburgh: 4.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+11.2% more
Pittsburgh: 13.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.3%
Pittsburgh: 50.2%
vs
Tampa Bay: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
4
TB Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.7 / 13.2
4.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
47.9 / 50.2
45.8 / 54.2
Hits
15.7 / 16.6
13.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
17.9 / 35.5
16.7 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
28.9 / 27.4
40.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.9
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PIT
TB
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
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