UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
2-4 | Road
60
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
5-2 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
VAQUEROS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UT Rio Grande Valley)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RGV -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)
RGV By 1-7 points
26.2%
RGV By 8-14 points
25.3%
SFA By 1-7 points
15.3%
SFA By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
92
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Stephen F. Austin
85
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
71
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Stephen F. Austin
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vaqueros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vaqueros (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
SFA @ RGV
66 - 57
Dec 3, 2025
RGV @ SFA
60 - 73
Feb 10, 2025
RGV @ SFA
75 - 85
Dec 5, 2024
SFA @ RGV
65 - 68
Feb 8, 2024
RGV @ SFA
84 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+11.6% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 15.2
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 38.9%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 31.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 45.4%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 42.9%
Blocks (L5)
+170.1% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.7
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
92.0
60
SFA Score
85.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 38.9
33.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.4 / 15.2
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.7 / 1.7
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 45.4
39.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 66.8
71.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 35.3
44.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.6 / 6.8
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 9.7
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
RGV
SFA
RGV
ML
59%
17-12
53%
16-14
79%
23-6
54%
15-13
ATS
59%
17-12
53%
16-14
79%
23-6
54%
15-13
TTL
62%
18-11
60%
18-12
100%
29-0
100%
28-0
Contextual Game News
