LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
2-6 | Road
47
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
4-5 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
BEARS
100%
TROJANS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Little Rock)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
LR By 1-7 points
24.3%
LR By 8-14 points
26.8%
CARK By 1-7 points
12.2%
CARK By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
78
LITTLE ROCK
Central Arkansas
69
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Little Rock
71
LITTLE ROCK
Central Arkansas
77
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
LR @ CARK
47 - 85
Dec 4, 2024
CARK @ LR
57 - 63
Dec 7, 2023
LR @ CARK
71 - 75
Dec 20, 2022
CARK @ LR
66 - 75
Nov 14, 2022
LR @ CARK
71 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.3% more
Little Rock: 3.9
vs
Central Arkansas: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+29.3% more
Little Rock: 9.5
vs
Central Arkansas: 6.7
Turnovers (L5)
+21.2% more
Little Rock: 16.3
vs
Central Arkansas: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Little Rock: 46.0%
vs
Central Arkansas: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
78.0
47
CARK Score
69.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 33.7
37.0 / 25.0
Assists
15.1 / 14.3
21.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.5 / 3.9
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 46.0
48.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
67.4 / 57.6
71.0 / 22.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 29.4
44.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.7 / 9.5
16.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 16.3
14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
LR
CARK
LR
ML
67%
22-11
52%
16-15
70%
23-10
68%
17-8
ATS
61%
20-13
45%
14-17
70%
23-10
68%
17-8
TTL
50%
16-16-1
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
25-0
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