Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Catamounts @ Beavers UVM @ ORST

VERMONT

CATAMOUNTSUVM

5-5  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 9:30 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

4-5  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
📊
BEAVERS
100%
CATAMOUNTS --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Vermont)
CatamountsUVM (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Catamounts Cover

97.1%

Beavers Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVM -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)

UVM By 1-7 points

9.3%

UVM By 8-14 points

20.1%

ORST By 1-7 points

2.2%

ORST By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
66
VERMONT
47
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
68
VERMONT
71
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Catamounts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Catamounts (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 UVM @ ORST 58 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Vermont: 49.0% vs Oregon State: 42.5%
Blocks (L5) +205.8% more
Oregon State: 5.3 vs Vermont: 1.7
Steals (L5) +58.6% more
Oregon State: 5.0 vs Vermont: 3.1
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Oregon State: 13.5 vs Vermont: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVM Score 66.0 58
ORST Score 47.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 34.2 50.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.7 / 12.3 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.3 / 1.7 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 49.0 51.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 74.2 92.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 33.0 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.0 / 3.1 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 10.9 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVM Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -2.4
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVM
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -2.4
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.9
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
UVM
ORST
UVM
ML
45% 15-18
56% 19-15
59% 19-13
65% 22-12
ATS
48% 16-17
62% 21-13
59% 19-13
65% 22-12
TTL
55% 18-15
47% 16-18
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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