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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

4-8  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

8-4  |  Home

39
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Ray Davis
KEY GAME

Ray Davis

#7 | Running Back
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Ray Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
BENGALS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Buffalo)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

23.8%

Bills Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

CIN By 1-6 points

10.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

7.3%

BUF By 1-6 points

15.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
CINCINNATI
31
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
20
CINCINNATI
24
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u55.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 CIN @ BUF 34 - 39
Nov 5, 2023 BUF @ CIN 18 - 24
Jan 22, 2023 CIN @ BUF 27 - 10
Sep 22, 2019 CIN @ BUF 17 - 21
Oct 8, 2017 BUF @ CIN 16 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.9% more
Buffalo: 2.2 vs Cincinnati: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.6% more
Buffalo: 170.4 vs Cincinnati: 113.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Cincinnati: 245.3 vs Buffalo: 199.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 21.0 34
BUF Score 31.0 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.2 22.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 199.5 / 245.3 233.0 / 276.0
Rushing Yards 170.4 / 113.2 183.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.83
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 369.9 / 358.5 416.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.3 6.9 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
CIN
BUF
CIN
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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