Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Jaguars IND @ JAX

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

8-4  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

8-4  |  Home

36
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
COLTS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Indianapolis)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

69.1%

Jaguars Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

16.5%

IND By 7-13 points

19.3%

JAX By 1-6 points

12.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
INDIANAPOLIS
20
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
INDIANAPOLIS
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o45.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u45.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 17
Dec 7, 2025 IND @ JAX 19 - 36
Jan 5, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 26
Oct 6, 2024 IND @ JAX 34 - 37
Oct 15, 2023 IND @ JAX 20 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.1% more
Indianapolis: 5.9 vs Jacksonville: 5.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.6% more
Indianapolis: 125.9 vs Jacksonville: 113.9
Total Yards (L5) +8.2% more
Indianapolis: 340.3 vs Jacksonville: 312.3
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Jacksonville: 1.4 vs Indianapolis: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 27.0 19
JAX Score 20.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 18.6 18.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 198.5 / 214.4 247.0 / 196.0
Rushing Yards 113.9 / 125.9 103.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 312.3 / 340.3 350.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.9 5.6 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
IND
JAX
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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