Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Vikings WSH @ MIN

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-9  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 1:00 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

4-8  |  Home

31
Key Game
Austin Keys
KEY GAME

Austin Keys

#-- | Linebacker
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Austin Keys None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
0%
📊
VIKINGS
100%
COMMANDERS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Washington)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

69.1%

Vikings Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-6 points

16.5%

WSH By 7-13 points

19.3%

MIN By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20
WASHINGTON
13
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
21
WASHINGTON
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Commanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Commanders (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 WSH @ MIN 0 - 31
Nov 6, 2022 MIN @ WSH 20 - 17
Oct 24, 2019 WSH @ MIN 9 - 19
Nov 12, 2017 MIN @ WSH 38 - 30
Nov 13, 2016 MIN @ WSH 20 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +43.0% more
Washington: 220.0 vs Minnesota: 125.3
First Downs (L5) +39.7% more
Washington: 22.4 vs Minnesota: 13.5
Total Yards (L5) +39.5% more
Washington: 357.7 vs Minnesota: 216.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
Washington: 137.7 vs Minnesota: 91.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 20.0 0
MIN Score 13.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.5 / 22.4 25.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 125.3 / 220.0 151.0 / 99.0
Rushing Yards 91.0 / 137.7 162.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 216.3 / 357.7 313.0 / 206.0
Turnovers 3.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.0 / 5.3 5.1 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Looks to Build Momentum in Road Test at Penn State
si 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 7 hours, 24 minutes ago
Colorado Buffaloes' NFL Draft Hopes Dim for Five Players Amid Th…
si 7 hours, 26 minutes ago
Ronald Acuña Jr. Gets Emotional After Braves' Postseason Exit, E…
ajc 19 hours, 23 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels Returns to Full Practice as Commanders Grapple wi…
headtopics 19 hours, 41 minutes ago