Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Raiders DEN @ LV

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

10-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:05 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-10  |  Home

17
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
BRONCOS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

78.4%

Raiders Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

14.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.7%

LV By 1-6 points

10.0%

LV By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26
DENVER
15
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 DEN @ LV 24 - 17
Nov 6, 2025 LV @ DEN 7 - 10
Nov 24, 2024 DEN @ LV 29 - 19
Oct 6, 2024 LV @ DEN 18 - 34
Jan 7, 2024 DEN @ LV 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.2% more
Denver: 92.8 vs Las Vegas: 49.1
Total Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Denver: 344.0 vs Las Vegas: 216.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +33.4% more
Denver: 251.2 vs Las Vegas: 167.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.4% more
Denver: 5.4 vs Las Vegas: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 26.0 24
LV Score 15.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 18.5 16.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 167.3 / 251.2 189.0 / 204.0
Rushing Yards 49.1 / 92.8 40.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 216.3 / 344.0 229.0 / 356.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 3.8 / 5.4 4.8 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
DEN
LV
DEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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