Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Packers CHI @ GB

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

9-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:25 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

8-3-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
PACKERS
100%
BEARS --
PACKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 PackersGB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

69.1%

Packers Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

16.5%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.3%

GB By 1-6 points

12.9%

GB By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
CHICAGO
20
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
20
CHICAGO
27
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Packers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 GB @ CHI 27 - 31
Dec 20, 2025 GB @ CHI 16 - 22
Dec 7, 2025 CHI @ GB 21 - 28
Jan 5, 2025 CHI @ GB 24 - 22
Nov 17, 2024 GB @ CHI 20 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Chicago: 0.9 vs Green Bay: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
Chicago: 189.1 vs Green Bay: 125.0
First Downs (L5) +15.2% more
Chicago: 23.2 vs Green Bay: 19.7
Total Yards (L5) +15.1% more
Chicago: 385.7 vs Green Bay: 327.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 27.0 21
GB Score 20.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 23.2 17.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 202.4 / 196.5 220.0 / 177.0
Rushing Yards 125.0 / 189.1 117.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 327.4 / 385.7 337.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.4 6.5 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
CHI
GB
CHI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-3-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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