Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Chiefs HOU @ KC

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

7-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 8:20 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-6  |  Home

10
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
TEXANS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

47.2%

Chiefs Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.1%

HOU By 7-13 points

14.6%

KC By 1-6 points

16.7%

KC By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
HOUSTON
28
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
27
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o42.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u42.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 HOU @ KC 20 - 10
Jan 18, 2025 HOU @ KC 14 - 23
Dec 21, 2024 HOU @ KC 19 - 27
Dec 18, 2022 KC @ HOU 30 - 24
Sep 10, 2020 HOU @ KC 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.0% more
Kansas City: 0.9 vs Houston: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Kansas City: 270.2 vs Houston: 227.6
Total Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Kansas City: 386.7 vs Houston: 332.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.9% more
Kansas City: 5.7 vs Houston: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 27.0 20
KC Score 28.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 20.7 15.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 270.2 / 227.6 148.0 / 186.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 105.3 126.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 386.7 / 332.9 274.0 / 268.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.0 4.3 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
HOU
KC
HOU
ML
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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