Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Lions DAL @ DET

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

6-5-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Thu, Dec 4 • 8:15 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

7-5  |  Home

44
Key Game
Tyrus Wheat
KEY GAME

Tyrus Wheat

#59 | Linebacker
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Tyrus Wheat None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
COWBOYS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Detroit)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

30.9%

Lions Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DAL By 1-6 points

12.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

9.6%

DET By 1-6 points

16.5%

DET By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
DALLAS
31
DETROIT
Simulated Score
24
DALLAS
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 4, 2025 DAL @ DET 30 - 44
Oct 13, 2024 DET @ DAL 47 - 9
Dec 30, 2023 DET @ DAL 19 - 20
Oct 23, 2022 DET @ DAL 6 - 24
Nov 17, 2019 DAL @ DET 35 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Detroit: 148.1 vs Dallas: 125.5
Turnovers (L5) +58.9% more
Dallas: 1.4 vs Detroit: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Dallas: 293.9 vs Detroit: 247.2
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Dallas: 23.3 vs Detroit: 20.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 24.0 30
DET Score 31.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 23.3 20.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 247.2 / 293.9 299.0 / 326.0
Rushing Yards 148.1 / 125.5 109.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 395.3 / 419.4 408.0 / 417.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 6.4 7.2 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
DAL
DET
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
67% 2-1-1
67% 2-1-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 21 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 22 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 18 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 7 hours, 19 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb's Record-Setting Day Sparks Cowboys' Offensive Surge
yardbarker 19 hours, 44 minutes ago