EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
1-7 | Road
78
ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
7-2 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
0%
REDBIRDS
100%
COLONELS
--
REDBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
EKU By 1-7 points
27.2%
EKU By 8-14 points
20.1%
ILST By 1-7 points
21.6%
ILST By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Kentucky
73
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Illinois State
70
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
Eastern Kentucky
72
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Illinois State
78
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redbirds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Redbirds (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
EKU @ ILST
78 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.1% more
Eastern Kentucky: 12.3
vs
Illinois State: 8.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Eastern Kentucky: 73.4%
vs
Illinois State: 67.3%
Blocks (L5)
+49.8% more
Illinois State: 3.5
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 2.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Illinois State: 47.7%
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EKU Score
73.0
78
ILST Score
70.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 30.9
48.0 / 39.0
Assists
13.2 / 13.4
16.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.3
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 40.3
54.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 73.4
80.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 39.0
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.9 / 5.9
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 12.3
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
EKU
ILST
EKU
ML
42%
15-21
44%
14-18
71%
24-10
69%
22-10
ATS
58%
21-15
56%
18-14
71%
24-10
69%
22-10
TTL
58%
21-15
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0