Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Pacers DEN @ IND

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

14-6  |  Road

135
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

4-17  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
NUGGETS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indiana)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

46.0%

Pacers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

DEN By 1-7 points

24.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

13.7%

IND By 1-7 points

26.2%

IND By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DENVER
126
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
DENVER
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+8) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o237.5 Win
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 DEN @ IND 135 - 120
Nov 8, 2025 IND @ DEN 100 - 117
Apr 6, 2025 IND @ DEN 125 - 120
Feb 24, 2025 DEN @ IND 125 - 116
Jan 23, 2024 DEN @ IND 114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +61.4% more
Indiana: 7.2 vs Denver: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +54.9% more
Indiana: 7.1 vs Denver: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Indiana: 14.5 vs Denver: 13.1
Assists (L5) +32.3% more
Denver: 33.0 vs Indiana: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 125.0 135
IND Score 126.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 42.2 46.0 / 61.0
Assists 22.4 / 33.0 24.0 / 23.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.6 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 51.5 52.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 84.4 79.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 43.8 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.2 / 4.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 13.1 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DEN
IND
DEN
ML
48% 47-50
54% 57-48
54% 45-38
55% 47-39
ATS
59% 57-40
63% 65-38-2
54% 45-38
55% 47-39
TTL
54% 52-45
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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