Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Dukes NCCU @ JMU

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

3-6  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

5-4  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
EAGLES --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (James Madison)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

24.2%

Dukes Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

NCCU By 1-7 points

15.3%

NCCU By 8-14 points

5.8%

JMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
73
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
80
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
65
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
78
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 NCCU @ JMU 62 - 67
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
James Madison: 38.7% vs North Carolina Central: 29.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
James Madison: 77.9% vs North Carolina Central: 75.2%
Steals (L5) +52.8% more
North Carolina Central: 12.1 vs James Madison: 5.7
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
North Carolina Central: 11.3 vs James Madison: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 73.0 62
JMU Score 80.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 29.7 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.3 / 18.5 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.8 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 46.2 35.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 75.2 69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 33.9 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.7 / 12.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 11.3 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
NCCU
JMU
NCCU
ML
64% 21-12
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
81% 22-5
ATS
67% 22-11
71% 22-9
66% 21-11
81% 22-5
TTL
67% 22-11
55% 17-14
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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