MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
DELTA DEVILSMVSU
1-8 | Road
52
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
2-6 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
0%
WARHAWKS
100%
DELTA DEVILS
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Mississippi Valley State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MVSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MVSU)
MVSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
MVSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
ULM By 1-7 points
2.7%
ULM By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi Valley State
80
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
UL Monroe
62
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Mississippi Valley State
61
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
UL Monroe
78
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Delta Devils
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Delta Devils (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
MVSU @ ULM
52 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.4% more
Mississippi Valley State: 19.2
vs
UL Monroe: 12.6
Blocks (L5)
+29.3% more
Mississippi Valley State: 3.7
vs
UL Monroe: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+14.3% more
Mississippi Valley State: 6.8
vs
UL Monroe: 5.9
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
Mississippi Valley State: 15.0
vs
UL Monroe: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score
80.0
52
ULM Score
62.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 32.0
30.0 / 18.0
Assists
13.1 / 15.0
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.7
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
39.4 / 46.2
43.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 76.5
69.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 32.0
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.9 / 6.8
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 19.2
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
ULM
Advantage
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.0
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
MVSU
ULM
MVSU
ML
50%
16-16
91%
30-3
70%
21-9
75%
18-6
ATS
78%
25-7
82%
27-6
70%
21-9
75%
18-6
TTL
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
100%
30-0
100%
24-0
