ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
6-3 | Road
74
MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
3-5 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
100%
BOBCATS
0%
TOMMIES
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)
STMN By 1-7 points
24.3%
STMN By 8-14 points
13.7%
MTST By 1-7 points
26.2%
MTST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
65
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Montana State
66
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
69
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Montana State
73
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
STMN @ MTST
74 - 82
Dec 8, 2022
STMN @ MTST
65 - 82
Dec 11, 2021
MTST @ STMN
72 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.0% more
Montana State: 12.0
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 9.0
Blocks (L5)
+33.3% more
Montana State: 3.8
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Montana State: 35.2%
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 30.8%
Assists (L5)
+40.2% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 19.2
vs
Montana State: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
65.0
74
MTST Score
66.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 30.8
38.0 / 30.0
Assists
11.5 / 19.2
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.8 / 2.9
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 45.7
43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 76.9
76.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 33.8
32.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.0 / 9.0
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 9.0
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
STMN
MTST
STMN
ML
52%
16-15
64%
21-12
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
ATS
52%
16-15
70%
23-10
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
TTL
65%
20-11
61%
20-13
100%
30-0
100%
33-0