SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
5-16 | Road
95
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
13-5 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
KINGS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
SAC By 1-7 points
6.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
1.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
18.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Houston
125
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Sacramento
117
SACRAMENTO
Houston
122
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.0
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u231.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
SAC @ HOU
97 - 128
Jan 11, 2026
HOU @ SAC
98 - 111
Dec 21, 2025
HOU @ SAC
124 - 125
Dec 3, 2025
SAC @ HOU
95 - 121
Mar 1, 2025
SAC @ HOU
113 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+22.4% more
Houston: 13.7
vs
Sacramento: 11.2
Rebounding (L5)
+21.4% more
Houston: 47.9
vs
Sacramento: 39.4
Blocks (L5)
+10.9% more
Houston: 5.8
vs
Sacramento: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
Houston: 77.3%
vs
Sacramento: 72.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
112.0
95
HOU Score
125.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 32.0
31.0 / 29.0
Assists
26.3 / 25.3
24.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.8 / 5.2
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 46.0
53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 72.2
83.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
47.9 / 39.4
62.0 / 32.0
Steals
9.1 / 10.5
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 11.2
18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SAC
HOU
SAC
ML
61%
69-44
55%
55-45
59%
51-35
61%
50-32
ATS
62%
70-43
54%
52-45-3
59%
51-35
61%
50-32
TTL
51%
58-55
58%
57-42-1
100%
86-0
100%
82-0
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