MIAMI
HEATMIA
14-7 | Road
108
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
7-15 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
HEAT
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
6.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
1.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110
MIAMI
Dallas
89
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
MIA @ DAL
108 - 118
Nov 24, 2025
DAL @ MIA
102 - 106
Feb 13, 2025
MIA @ DAL
113 - 118
Nov 24, 2024
DAL @ MIA
118 - 123
Apr 10, 2024
DAL @ MIA
111 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.2% more
Miami: 6.6
vs
Dallas: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+21.1% more
Miami: 14.0
vs
Dallas: 11.0
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Miami: 47.5
vs
Dallas: 42.2
Assists (L5)
+10.1% more
Miami: 30.5
vs
Dallas: 27.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.0
108
DAL Score
89.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 41.3
50.0 / 30.0
Assists
27.4 / 30.5
31.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.4 / 6.6
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 49.3
51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 81.7
83.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
42.2 / 47.5
50.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.0 / 8.8
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 14.0
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIA
DAL
MIA
ML
62%
63-39
48%
46-50
54%
44-37
59%
48-34
ATS
67%
68-34
51%
49-47
54%
44-37
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
60-41-1
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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