Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Purple Aces BALL @ EVAN

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

3-6  |  Road

52
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

4-5  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
PURPLE ACES
100%
CARDINALS --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Ball State)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

99.8%

Purple Aces Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BALL -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-7 points

1.4%

BALL By 8-14 points

5.8%

EVAN By 1-7 points

0.1%

EVAN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
BALL STATE
56
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
71
BALL STATE
76
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 BALL @ EVAN 52 - 64
Dec 21, 2024 EVAN @ BALL 43 - 80
Nov 18, 2023 BALL @ EVAN 50 - 74
Dec 10, 2022 EVAN @ BALL 69 - 88
Nov 9, 2019 BALL @ EVAN 75 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.7% more
Ball State: 3.6 vs Evansville: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +23.8% more
Ball State: 35.4 vs Evansville: 27.0
Steals (L5) +22.8% more
Ball State: 6.3 vs Evansville: 4.9
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
Ball State: 12.8 vs Evansville: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 85.0 52
EVAN Score 56.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.5 / 31.1 24.0 / 25.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.8 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.6 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 39.2 42.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 69.2 78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 27.0 / 35.4 41.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.9 / 6.3 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 11.5 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
BALL
EVAN
BALL
ML
56% 18-14
43% 13-17
62% 20-12
62% 18-11
ATS
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
62% 18-11
TTL
62% 20-12
50% 15-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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