Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Grizzlies NDSU @ MONT

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

6-3  |  Road

81
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

4-5  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
BISON --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Dakota State)
BisonNDSU (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

69.1%

Grizzlies Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

NDSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

NDSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

MONT By 1-7 points

18.6%

MONT By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
72
MONTANA
Simulated Score
68
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
71
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 NDSU @ MONT 81 - 72
Jan 3, 2024 MONT @ NDSU 96 - 86
Nov 16, 2023 NDSU @ MONT 78 - 69
Dec 10, 2022 MONT @ NDSU 82 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +56.4% more
North Dakota State: 9.2 vs Montana: 4.0
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
North Dakota State: 70.7% vs Montana: 66.7%
Turnovers (L5) +28.3% more
Montana: 14.6 vs North Dakota State: 11.4
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Montana: 17.9 vs North Dakota State: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 77.0 81
MONT Score 72.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 38.9 32.0 / 22.0
Assists 17.9 / 15.5 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.1 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 44.0 48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 70.7 62.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 36.3 31.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.0 / 9.2 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 11.4 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
NDSU
MONT
NDSU
ML
39% 13-20
49% 17-18
73% 24-9
59% 20-14
ATS
55% 18-15
54% 19-16
73% 24-9
59% 20-14
TTL
59% 19-13-1
43% 15-20
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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