Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Mountaineers SHU @ MSM

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

2-5  |  Road

87
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

2-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
PIONEERS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SACRED HEART
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Sacred Heart)
PioneersSHU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

97.1%

Mountaineers Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHU)

SHU By 1-7 points

9.3%

SHU By 8-14 points

20.1%

MSM By 1-7 points

2.2%

MSM By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
89
SACRED HEART
70
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
SACRED HEART
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 MSM @ SHU 69 - 77
Dec 3, 2025 SHU @ MSM 87 - 80
Jan 12, 2025 SHU @ MSM 71 - 73
Feb 24, 2022 MSM @ SHU 65 - 77
Jan 21, 2022 SHU @ MSM 59 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +65.9% more
Sacred Heart: 9.5 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5) +15.1%
Sacred Heart: 83.6% vs Mount St. Mary's: 68.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Sacred Heart: 37.8% vs Mount St. Mary's: 35.3%
Blocks (L5) +52.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 3.0 vs Sacred Heart: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHU Score 89.0 87
MSM Score 70.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 37.8 33.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.9 / 14.3 17.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.0 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 41.9 50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 83.6 64.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 29.7 29.0 / 38.0
Steals 3.2 / 9.5 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 16.1 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
SHU
MSM
SHU
ML
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
61% 19-12
73% 24-9
ATS
62% 20-12
76% 25-8
61% 19-12
73% 24-9
TTL
81% 26-6
58% 19-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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