Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson @ Minutemen HARV @ MASS

HARVARD

CRIMSONHARV

5-4  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Mullins Center
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

4-3  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON
0%
📊
MINUTEMEN
100%
CRIMSON --
MINUTEMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
HARVARD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Harvard)
CrimsonHARV (-3.5) 0 MinutemenMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Cover

99.2%

Minutemen Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HARV -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HARV)

HARV By 1-7 points

4.0%

HARV By 8-14 points

12.2%

MASS By 1-7 points

0.6%

MASS By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
79
HARVARD
55
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
69
HARVARD
73
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Crimson Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Minutemen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Crimson (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Minutemen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 HARV @ MASS 71 - 78
Nov 27, 2024 MASS @ HARV 62 - 54
Nov 17, 2023 HARV @ MASS 78 - 75
Dec 2, 2022 MASS @ HARV 71 - 68
Dec 4, 2021 HARV @ MASS 77 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.7% more
Harvard: 2.3 vs Massachusetts: 1.3
Free Throw % (L5) +24.9%
Harvard: 89.0% vs Massachusetts: 64.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Harvard: 33.9% vs Massachusetts: 29.0%
Rebounding (L5) +13.1% more
Massachusetts: 36.6 vs Harvard: 32.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HARV Score 79.0 71
MASS Score 55.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 33.9 50.0 / 16.0
Assists 14.9 / 14.4 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.3 / 2.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.0 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 64.1 / 89.0 67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 32.4 33.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.8 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.1 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HARV Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
MASS
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HARV Advantage
12-13-1 (48.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4% Total +/-: -4.3
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
HARV
MASS
HARV
ML
44% 14-18
45% 13-16
68% 21-10
52% 15-14
ATS
47% 15-17
45% 13-16
68% 21-10
52% 15-14
TTL
56% 18-14
41% 12-17
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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