Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Mavericks UNCO @ OMA

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

7-1  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Baxter Arena
View Odds Details →

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

3-6  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
BEARS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Northern Colorado)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 MavericksOMA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

98.9%

Mavericks Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCO -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)

UNCO By 1-7 points

4.8%

UNCO By 8-14 points

13.7%

OMA By 1-7 points

0.8%

OMA By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
97
NORTHERN COLORADO
74
OMAHA
Simulated Score
71
NORTHERN COLORADO
74
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 UNCO @ OMA 75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
Northern Colorado: 19.6 vs Omaha: 16.1
Free Throw % (L5) +11.6%
Northern Colorado: 83.9% vs Omaha: 72.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Northern Colorado: 51.5% vs Omaha: 48.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Northern Colorado: 40.7% vs Omaha: 39.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 97.0 75
OMA Score 74.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 40.7 37.0 / 34.0
Assists 16.1 / 19.6 9.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.1 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 51.5 44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 83.9 68.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 37.0 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.4 / 4.3 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 10.1 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
UNCO
OMA
UNCO
ML
79% 26-7
50% 16-16
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
ATS
76% 25-8
53% 17-15
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
TTL
73% 24-9
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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