SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
5-4 | Road
75
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
4-3 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
JACKRABBITS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (South Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDST -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)
SDST By 1-7 points
4.0%
SDST By 8-14 points
12.2%
NAU By 1-7 points
0.6%
NAU By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
88
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Northern Arizona
64
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
65
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Northern Arizona
78
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jackrabbits
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jackrabbits (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
SDST @ NAU
75 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.5% more
South Dakota State: 14.5
vs
Northern Arizona: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
South Dakota State: 68.6%
vs
Northern Arizona: 65.7%
Blocks (L5)
+136.2% more
Northern Arizona: 3.8
vs
South Dakota State: 1.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.7%
Northern Arizona: 38.0%
vs
South Dakota State: 25.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
88.0
75
NAU Score
64.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 25.4
29.0 / 31.0
Assists
13.4 / 12.7
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.8 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 40.7
41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 68.6
58.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 37.2
33.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.7
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 14.5
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
SDST
NAU
SDST
ML
62%
20-12
75%
24-8
81%
26-6
53%
17-15
ATS
62%
20-12
78%
25-7
81%
26-6
53%
17-15
TTL
66%
21-11
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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