NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
5-2 | Road
73
WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
5-2 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
BADGERS
100%
WILDCATS
--
BADGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIS +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)
NU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NU By 8-14 points
20.1%
WIS By 1-7 points
21.6%
WIS By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern
58
NORTHWESTERN
Wisconsin
55
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
Northwestern
66
NORTHWESTERN
Wisconsin
71
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Badgers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Badgers (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Badgers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
NU @ WIS
73 - 85
Mar 13, 2025
NU @ WIS
63 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
WIS @ NU
75 - 69
Mar 15, 2024
WIS @ NU
70 - 61
Jan 13, 2024
NU @ WIS
63 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.5% more
Northwestern: 18.2
vs
Wisconsin: 14.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.3%
Northwestern: 51.8%
vs
Wisconsin: 41.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Northwestern: 35.1%
vs
Wisconsin: 30.1%
Steals (L5)
+47.0% more
Wisconsin: 8.1
vs
Northwestern: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NU Score
58.0
73
WIS Score
55.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 35.1
35.0 / 21.0
Assists
14.3 / 18.2
19.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.2
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 51.8
44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 74.5
86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 29.9
33.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.5
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.4
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
WIS
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
NU
WIS
NU
ML
60%
21-14
47%
16-18
69%
24-11
68%
23-11
ATS
51%
18-17
50%
17-17
69%
24-11
68%
23-11
TTL
57%
20-15
53%
18-16
100%
35-0
100%
34-0
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